
Shad Powers is a sports reporter for the Desert Sun. Prior to the bowl season we stumbled on his betting methodology while reading through Yahoo and were intrigued. We reached out to Mr. Powers for more information on his methodology. He graciously provided guidance on how to use his methodology. The Power’s methodology is based on “Quality Games”. A team earns points based on their performance against the better teams on their schedule. The season-ending AP Top 25 serves as the basis for “ranked” opponents. Points are earned in the following manner:
Wins:
- +3 Road win over a ranked team
- +2 Home or neutral win over a ranked team
- +1 Lopsided win (21 points or more) over an unranked team
- 0 Regular win (9-20 points) win over an unranked team
- -1 Narrow win (8 points or less) over an unranked team
Losses:
- +1 Narrow loss (8 points or less) to a ranked team
- 0 Regular loss (9-20 points) to a ranked team
- -1 Lopsided loss (21 points or more) loss to a ranked team
- -2 Regular loss (Less than 20 points) to an unranked team
- -3 Lopsided loss (21 points or more) to an unranked team
The Powers Quality Games methodology doesn’t provide a measure of covers or over/under, just winners. We applied the Powers Quality Game methodology to our G5 Bowl Games and measured it against Las Vegas (favorites). The table below shows the performance of Shad’s methodology against Vegas. In cases where the Powers methodology yielded the same points for each team, we classified the game as a “draw”.
Vegas (Initial) | Powers Method | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Bowl Game | Matchup | Pick | Pick | ||
Bahamas Bowl | Toledo vs Middle Tennessee State | Toledo | ✘ | Toledo | ✘ |
Cure Bowl | Coastal Carolina vs Northern Illinois | Coastal Carolina | ✓ | Coastal Carolina | ✓ |
Boca Raton Bowl | Appalachian State vs Western Kentucky | Appalachian State | ✘ | Western Kentucky | ✓ |
New Mexico Bowl | Texas-El Paso vs Fresno State | Fresno State | ✓ | Fresno State | ✓ |
Indepdendence Bowl | Brigham Young vs Alabama-Birmingham | BYU | ✘ | BYU | ✘ |
Lending Tree Bowl | Liberty vs Eastern Michigan | Liberty | ✓ | Liberty | ✓ |
Kimmel LA Bowl | Utah State vs Oregon State | Oregon State | ✘ | DRAW | – |
New Orleans Bowl | Louisiana vs Marshall | Louisiana | ✓ | Louisiana | ✓ |
Myrtle Beach Bowl | Tulsa vs Old Dominion | Tulsa | ✓ | Tulsa | ✓ |
Famous Idaho Potato Bowl | Kent State vs Wyoming | Wyoming | ✓ | Wyoming | ✓ |
Frisco Bowl | San Diego State vs Texas-San Antonio | UTSA | ✘ | DRAW | – |
Armed Forces Bowl | Army vs Missouri | Army | ✓ | DRAW | – |
Gasparilla Bowl | Florida vs Central Florida | Florida | ✘ | Florida | ✘ |
Frisco Football Classic | Miami(OH) vs North Texas | Miami (OH) | ✓ | Miami (OH) | ✓ |
Camellia Bowl | Georgia State vs Ball State | Georgia State | ✓ | Georgia State | ✓ |
Quick Lane Bowl | Nevada vs Western Michigan | Nevada | ✘ | Western Michigan | ✓ |
Birmingham Bowl | Houston vs Auburn | Auburn | ✘ | Houston | ✓ |
First Responder Bowl | Louisville vs Air Force | Louisville | ✘ | Louisville | ✘ |
Sun Bowl | Washington State vs Central Michigan | Washington State | ✘ | Washington State | ✘ |
Cotton Bowl Classic | Alabama vs Cincinnati | Alabama | ✓ | Alabama | ✓ |
TOTALS | 10 | 12 | |||
RECORD | 10-10 | 12-5-3 |
As you can see, the Powers methodology beat Vegas handily, finishing 12-5-3 versus Vegas at 10-10. The Powers methodology picked the correct upset winner in Western Kentucky vs App State, Western Michigan vs Nevada, and Houston vs Auburn. In the three cases where the Powers method computed a “draw”, the underdog won two of the games.
We were very impressed with the success rate of the Power’s model and we plan to apply it next year for our bowl picks (it would have definitely helped our panel with their picks this year). Again, thanks to Shad Powers for his help in understanding and applying his formula.
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