Brutal. That is what we can call Week 6. In total 8 of the 28 games were won by the underdogs, including 5 wins by underdog visiting teams. The Guru panel only called one of those upsets, resulting in a pretty dismal 61% on picking the winners. That result dropped our season total to 79%. The esteemed panel is looking to redeem themselves in week 7, so let’s get to it.

The week kicks off with a Sunbelt showdown as 4-1 App State visits 4-1 Louisiana. Thus far in the year, Appalachian has seemed to be the better balanced team, averaging 35 points per contest and yielding 20. Louisiana has played much tighter games with averages of 28 points scored versus 23 points allowed. The Cajuns are on a four game winning streak and are at home. However, our eye test sees Appalachian winning and covering the 3.5 point spread.

In the AAC, Memphis looks to break a 3 game losing streak as they host Navy. We see a tight contest with Memphis winning but not covering. In the headliner game for the AAC, the #4 ranked Cincinnati Bearcats host the UCF Knights. With Dillon Gabriel out the Knights have struggled the last two games, dropping a 4 point decision to Navy and easing by East Carolina by 4. The Bearcats are on a roll and we see them winning and covering the surprisingly high 20 point spread.

In the Mountain West, there are 3 games that have our attention. In the first, San Jose State hosts undefeated San Diego State. The Gurus believe the Aztecs will win and cover in a high scoring affair. Boise State, coming off an upset of #10 BYU, hosts Air Force. This will be a hard-hitting affair that is won in the trenches. Both teams need wins to stay in the Mountain West race. We see the Broncos prevailing in higher scoring affair. Finally in the Mountain West Wyoming and Fresno State both look to get back on track in a matchup in Laramie. Wyoming’s offense has been hot-and-cold this season, putting up over 40 in two games and failing to break 20 in two others. The Bulldogs have averaged 39 points a game, but looked lethargic in their last outing against Hawaii. We look for the Bulldogs to get back on track with a win and cover the 3.5 point spread.

In other games of interest, we see a tight battle between Eastern Michigan and Ball State. We think Ball State is rolling now and will eke out a narrow win in a lower scoring game. In another key MAC matchup, the Guru panel sees Western Michigan getting back on track with a hard fought, lower scoring win over visiting Kent State. In CUSA action, the Old Dominion Monarchs host the high-scoring Hilltoppers of Western Kentucky. Few teams in the G5 have had a tougher schedule than Western Kentucky. The Gurus see the Hilltoppers winning and covering as they try to fight their way back into the CUSA race. Finally, in a key P5 vs G5 matchup, Baylor hosts #19 BYU. The Bears are coming off a blowout of West Virginia, while the Cougars are looking to rebound from their first loss of the year to Boise State. We see the home field advantage being too much for the Cougars and look for the Bears to win and cover in a game that should exceed to low 48 point line.

All of our picks for Week 7 are provided below. 

Group of Five GamesG5 Gurus Picks
HomeVisitorLineOvr/UndPickCoverOvd/Und
LouisianaAppalachian State3.555Appalachian StateYesUnder
South AlabamaGeorgia Southern-349.5South AlabamaYesUnder
MemphisNavy-852.5MemphisNoUnder
North TexasMarshall10.565MarshallYesUnder
San Jose StateSan Diego State842.5San Diego StateYesOver
Boise StateAir Force-650.5Boise StateYesOver
Miami (OH)Akron-2052.5Miami (OH)NoUnder
Southern MississippiAlabama-Birmingham1643Alabama-BirminghamNoOver
Eastern MichiganBall State2.554.5Ball StateYesUnder
Northern IllinoisBowling Green State-1049.5Northern IllinoisYesUnder
CincinnatiCentral Florida-2056.5CincinnatiYesOver
New MexicoColorado State9.544.5Colorado StateNoOver
WyomingFresno State3.555.5Fresno StateYesUnder
NevadaHawaii-15.559.5NevadaYesOver
Western MichiganKent State-764Western MichiganYesUnder
Louisiana-MonroeLiberty3256LibertyYesOver
Texas-El PasoLouisiana Tech755Louisiana TechYesUnder
BuffaloOhio-1055.5BuffaloYesOver
Texas-San AntonioRice-18.554.5Texas-San AntonioYesOver
Central MichiganToledo4.551.5ToledoYesUnder
Texas StateTroy6.549.5TroyYesOver
South FloridaTulsa957.5TulsaYesUnder
Nevada-Las VegasUtah State6.557.5Utah StateYesUnder
Old DominionWestern Kentucky12.567.5Western KentuckyYesUnder
WisconsinArmy-1341WisconsinYesOver
BaylorBrigham Young-4.548BaylorYesOver
ConnecticutYaleNo LineNo LineConnecticut