Through four weeks of the 2021 season, the G5 Guru Panel has picked the winner correctly on 83% of games, has picked the cover correctly on 57% of games, and is at 47% on over-under.  Week 4 was a brutal one, with the Gurus hitting on 82% of winners, but missing the 50% mark on covers and over/under. We predicted the Syracuse win, predicted Western Kentucky to give Indiana fits, and Maryland to easily handle Kent. We missed on SMU, who played a great game to down TCU.

The schedule doesn’t get any easier as we move into conference play, so let’s see what is on tap in week 5.

In P5 versus G5 action, the Guru Panel sees Michigan State’s defense being too tough, allowing them to beat the WKU Hilltoppers and cover the spread. After laying a total egg against ULM, we see Troy struggling against an SEC opponent. Look for South Carolina to win and cover. NC State host Lousiana Tech. The Wolfpack is coming off an emotional upset of Clemson in OT, but we believe they will have enough in the tank to beat the Bulldogs in a higher scoring affair. We see Illinois handling Charlotte and covering the spread. In the marque matchup, the panel believes Notre Dame will upend Cincinnati (though this pick was not unanimous) in a game that will exceed the 50.5 line.

In some of the bigger G5 non-conference matchups, the panel believes BYU will remain unbeaten with a lower scoring win over Utah State. We see Army dominating the clock and beating Ball State by more than 8. And in the most anticipated non-conference G5 game this week, the panel believes the UAB Blazers, playing at home, will knock off the Liberty Flames in a game that will exceed the 50 point line.

There are some important early conference games on tap as well. We see Georgia Southern righting their ship somewhat after the dismissal of their coach Chad Lunsford and beating Arkansas State in a high-scoring clash of two very different offensive styles. In an inter-state rivalry game we believe Florida Atlantic will roll over Florida International, covering the 11 point spread. We believe Western Michigan will prevail in a tight contest over Buffalo in the opening MAC game for both schools. In the marquee conference matchup of the day, the Gurus see the Boise State Broncos winning and covering the spread in a high scoring matchup against the Nevada Wolfpack led by Carson Strong.

All of our picks for Week 5 are provided below. 

Group of Five GamesG5 Gurus Picks
Utah StateBrigham Young+7.559.5Brigham YoungYesUnder
New MexicoAir Force+10.549Air ForceYesUnder
Georgia StateAppalachian State+10.0+55.5Appalachian StateNoOver
Georgia SouthernArkansas State-1.565Georgia SouthernYesUnder
Ball StateArmy+7.547.5ArmyYesUnder
Kent StateBowling Green State-17.056Kent StateNoUnder
NavyCentral Florida+15.556.5Central FloridaYesOver
Miami (OH)Central Michigan-1.055.5Central MichiganNoOver
Northern IllinoisEastern Michigan-2.562.5Northern IllinoisYesUnder
Florida AtlanticFlorida International-11.051.5Florida AtlanticYesOver
HawaiiFresno State+10.062.5Fresno StateYesOver
South AlabamaLouisiana+11.551.5LouisianaNoOver
Coastal CarolinaLouisiana-Monroe-34.557.5Coastal CarolinaNoOver
Middle Tennessee StateMarshall+10.064MarshallYesUnder
Boise StateNevada-6.557Boise StateYesOver
Texas-San AntonioNevada-Las Vegas-21.056Texas-San AntonioYesOver
San Jose StateNew Mexico State-28.051.5San Jose StateNoOver
Texas-El PasoOld Dominion-4.550Texas-El PasoYesUnder
Southern MethodistSouth Florida-20.568Southern MethodistNoUnder
RiceSouthern Mississippi+2.545Southern MississippiYesOver
East CarolinaTulane+4.064East CarolinaNoOver
BuffaloWestern Michigan+6.559.5Western MichiganNoUnder
Notre DameCincinnati+1.050.5Notre DameNoOver
North Carolina StateLouisiana Tech-19.555North Carolina StateNoOver
South CarolinaTroy-7.045South CarolinaYesOver
Michigan StateWestern Kentucky-10.561.5Michigan StateYesUnder