Week 11 was a more muted week, but not without its surprises. The G5 Guru Panel finished the week at 76% (25 of 33) on winners. The Panel hit on 61% of covers and 55% of over/unders. For the year the Panel sits at 77% on winners (265 of 345).
Week 12 begins on Tuesday night with 3 MACtion games on tap. The Guru Panel believes Miami (OH) will win and cover against Bowling Green. In game 2, we see a tighter matchup as Toledo will win over an imporving Ohio team, but not cover. In the third game the Gurus see Eastern Michigan winning a tight one against Western Michigan.
Wednesday night has two more MAC games beginning with Ball State hosting Central Michigan. We see the Cardinals winning to become bowl eligible, covering the spread. In the other game Buffalo hosts West-leading Northern Illinois. We also see Northern Illinois winning and covering in a high scoring matchup with Buffalo.
Friday sees conference match-ups in the AAC, CUSA, and MWC. In the AAC, the Panel believes Houston wins and covers over struggling Memphis. In the MWC, Nevada looks to remain unbeaten at home against Air Force. We see the Wolfpack winning and covering and solidifying their position in the MWC West. In the CUSA, we believe Louisiana Tech wins, but does not cover against Southern Miss.
Saturday has some huge conference matchups, beginning with unbeaten UT San Antonio hosting UAB. We believe this will be a stern test for the Roadrunners but believe they will win and cover the 5 point spread. In another big CUSA matchup, East-leading Western Kentucky hosts third place Florida Atlantic. WKU is on a roll and we see them handling the Owls and covering the spread.
In Sunbelt action, Troy hosts Appalachian State. We see App State fixing its turnover problems from last week and winning in a lower scoring affair. Resurgent Georgia State, fresh off its victory at Coastal Carolina hosts Arkansas State. We see the Panthers gaining bowl eligibility with an easy win over the struggling Redwolves.
In the AAC, a huge game highlights the schedule when unbeaten and #3 Cincinnati hosts 8-2 SMU, fresh off a convincing win over UCF. We think the Mustangs defense will struggle to stop the Bearcats. It will be a higher scoring affair with the Bearcats winning and covering. In other AAC action, Navy hosts surging East Carolina. The Pirates are clicking and we believe they win and cover in a high-scoring matchup.
In the MWC, Mountain leading Utah State takes on defensive minded Wyoming. We see a low-scoring game, with the Aggies winning and covering. West leading San Diego State visits UNLV. The Panel doesn’t believe the Rebels will be able to muster much against the Aztec defense. Look for the Aztecs to win and cover.
In non-conference G5 action, Liberty hosts Louisiana in a game that has national ranking implications. The Flames are favored, but the Panle believes the Cajuns win in a game with plenty of offense. Elsewhere, we see BYU handling Georgia Southern but don’t believe they will cover the 20 point spread.
The SEC “welcomes” in three Group-of-5 teams when LSU hosts Louisiana-Monroe, Kentucky hosts New Mexico State, and Tennessee hosts South Alabama. We see LSU and Kentucky winning and covering. However, we believe the Jaguars will put up a fight against the Vols, but Tennesse wins.
All of our picks for Week 12 are provided below.
| Group of Five Games | G5 Gurus Picks | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | Visitor | Line | Ovr/Und | Pick | Cover | Ovd/Und | |
| Miami (OH) | Bowling Green State | -17 | 51.5 |  Miami
(OH) | Yes |  Over | |
| Ohio | Toledo | 7 | 54 | Toledo | No | Under | |
| Eastern Michigan | Western Michigan | 5 | 66 | Eastern Michigan | No | Under | |
| Ball State | Central Michigan | -2 | 62 | Ball State | Yes | Under | |
| Buffalo | Northern Illinois | 1.5 | 63.5 | Northern Illinois | Yes | Over | |
| Nevada | Air Force | -2 | 52.5 | Nevada | Yes | Over | |
| Houston | Memphis | -9.5 | 60.5 | Houston | Yes | Over | |
| Louisiana Tech | Southern Mississippi | -16.5 | 50.5 | Louisiana Tech | No | Over | |
| Texas-San Antonio | Alabama-Birmingham | -5 | 54 | Texas-San Antonio | Yes | Under | |
| Troy | Appalachian State | 9.5 | 52 | Appalachian State | Yes | Under | |
| Georgia State | Arkansas State | -16.5 | 62.5 | Georgia State | Yes | Over | |
| Georgia Southern | Brigham Young | 20 | 57.5 | Brigham Young | No | Over | |
| Hawaii | Colorado State | 1.5 | 54 | Hawaii | No | Under | |
| Central Florida | Connecticut | -30.5 | 56.5 | Central Florida | Yes | Under | |
| Navy | East Carolina | 4 | 46.5 | East Carolina | Yes | Over | |
| Western Kentucky | Florida Atlantic | -10 | 64.5 | Western Kentucky | Yes | Under | |
| Akron | Kent State | 13 | 74.5 | Kent State | No | Under | |
| Liberty | Louisiana | -4 | 53 | Louisiana | No | Over | |
| Charlotte | Marshall | 14.5 | 62 | Marshall | No | Under | |
| Army | Massachusetts | -37.5 | 56.5 | Army | No | Under | |
| Boise State | New Mexico | -27 | 47.5 | Boise State | Yes | Over | |
| Florida International | North Texas | 10 | 59.5 | North Texas | Yes | Under | |
| Middle Tennessee State | Old Dominion | -3.5 | 51 | Middle Tennessee State | Yes | Under | |
| Texas-El Paso | Rice | -9.5 | 48 | Texas-El Paso | Yes | Over | |
| Nevada-Las Vegas | San Diego State | 11 | 41.5 | San Diego State | Yes | Over | |
| Tulane | South Florida | -3.5 | 60.5 | South Florida | Yes | Over | |
| Cincinnati | Southern Methodist | -12 | 65 | Cincinnati | Yes | Over | |
| Tulsa | Temple | -21.5 | 51 | Tulsa | Yes | Over | |
| Coastal Carolina | Texas State | -22 | 58.5 | Coastal Carolina | No | Under | |
| Utah State | Wyoming | -6 | 52.5 | Utah State | Yes | Under | |
| Louisiana State | Louisiana-Monroe | -29 | 57.5 | Louisiana State | Yes | Under | |
| Kentucky | New Mexico State | -36 | 59.5 | Kentucky | Yes | Over | |
| Tennessee | South Alabama | -27 | 63 | Tennessee | No | Under | |